Enhanced early prediction of clinically relevant neonatal hyperbilirubinemia with machine learning

Daunhawer, Imant and Kasser, Severin and Koch, Gilbert and Sieber, Lea and Cakal, Hatice and Tuetsch, Janina and Pfister, Marc and Wellmann, Sven and Vogt, Julia E. (2019) Enhanced early prediction of clinically relevant neonatal hyperbilirubinemia with machine learning. PEDIATRIC RESEARCH, 86 (1). pp. 122-127. ISSN 0031-3998, 1530-0447

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Machine learning models may enhance the early detection of clinically relevant hyperbilirubinemia based on patient information available in every hospital. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study on preterm and term born neonates with serial measurements of total serum bilirubin in the first two weeks of life. An ensemble, that combines a logistic regression with a random forest classifier, was trained to discriminate between the two classes phototherapy treatment vs. no treatment. RESULTS: Of 362 neonates included in this study, 98 had a phototherapy treatment, which our model was able to predict up to 48 h in advance with an area under the ROC-curve of 95.20%. From a set of 44 variables, including potential laboratory and clinical confounders, a subset of just four (bilirubin, weight, gestational age, hours since birth) suffices for a strong predictive performance. The resulting early phototherapy prediction tool (EPPT) is provided as an open web application. CONCLUSION: Early detection of clinically relevant hyperbilirubinemia can be enhanced by the application of machine learning. Existing guidelines can be further improved to optimize timing of bilirubin measurements to avoid toxic hyperbilirubinemia in high-risk patients while minimizing unneeded measurements in neonates who are at low risk.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: NEAR-TERM; SERUM BILIRUBIN; HEALTHY TERM; JAUNDICE; RISK; MANAGEMENT; MODEL;
Subjects: 600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
Divisions: Medicine > Lehrstuhl für Kinder- und Jugendmedizin
Depositing User: Dr. Gernot Deinzer
Date Deposited: 06 Apr 2020 06:48
Last Modified: 06 Apr 2020 06:48
URI: https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/26776

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