Neuenkirch, Matthias and Repko, Maria and Weber, Enzo (2025) Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine☆. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 89: 102744. ISSN 0176-2680, 1873-5703
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Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. We analyse how international financial markets perceived this news. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the early phase of the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a positive impact after the first weeks of the war when the Ukrainian position in the war improved, but a negative (or at least less positive) influence before. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived support as a risk of further escalation threatening business prospects in the first phase. However, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets after the change in perceptions.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | STOCK; WAR; SANCTIONS; Conflict; Event study; Financial markets; News; Russia; Sanctions; Ukraine |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, insbesondere Makroökonomie und Arbeitsmarkt (Prof. Dr. Enzo Weber) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 07 May 2026 05:56 |
| Last Modified: | 07 May 2026 05:56 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/66648 |
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