Bugmann, Harald and Seidl, Rupert and Hartig, Florian and Bohn, Friedrich and Bruna, Josef and Cailleret, Maxime and Francois, Louis and Heinke, Jens and Henrot, Alexandra-Jane and Hickler, Thomas and Huelsmann, Lisa and Huth, Andreas and Jacquemin, Ingrid and Kollas, Chris and Lasch-Born, Petra and Lexer, Manfred J. and Merganic, Jan and Merganicova, Katarna and Mette, Tobias and Miranda, Brian R. and Nadal-Sala, Daniel and Rammer, Werner and Rammig, Anja and Reineking, Bjoern and Roedig, Edna and Sabate, Santi and Steinkamp, Jorg and Suckow, Felicitas and Vacchiano, Giorgio and Wild, Jan and Xu, Chonggang and Reyer, Christopher P. O. (2019) Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale. ECOSPHERE, 10 (2): e02616. ISSN 2150-8925,
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10-40% per century under current climate and 20-170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | TERRESTRIAL CARBON-CYCLE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; VEGETATION MODELS; COMPLEX-SYSTEMS; GAP MODELS; ECOSYSTEM; DROUGHT; GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; VARIABILITY; climate change impacts; forest dynamics; model comparison; mortality modeling; succession |
| Subjects: | 500 Science > 570 Life sciences 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences |
| Divisions: | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Apr 2020 12:14 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Apr 2020 12:14 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/27584 |
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