Hoelzl, Alexander and Lobe, Sebastian (2016) Predicting above-median and below-median growth rates. REVIEW OF MANAGERIAL SCIENCE, 10 (1). pp. 105-133. ISSN 1863-6683, 1863-6691
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Multiannual periods of consecutive above-median or below-median growth rates in operating performance, called runs, have a substantial influence on firm valuations. For estimating the probability of an above-median or below-median run and utilizing information efficiently, we employ a stepwise regression to automatically identify the parsimonious indicator-specific set of economically and empirically meaningful variables. Our novel approach uses logit models to distinguish firms that will persistently grow above or below the median over a period of up to 6 years. The predictive power for sales growth rates is highest to discriminate between above-median and below-median growth rates, while the future behaviour of operating income and net income growth rates can partially be explained for below-median growth rates.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; STOCK RETURNS; FINANCIAL RATIOS; PERFORMANCE; BANKRUPTCY; MODEL; INVESTMENT; INCOME; RISK; Operating performance growth rates; Above-median; Below-median; Runs; Prediction |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology > 650 Management & auxiliary services |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Finanzdienstleistungen (Prof. Dr. Klaus Röder) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Mar 2019 08:21 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Mar 2019 08:21 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/2762 |
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