Keller, Andreas and Huesig, Stefan (2009) Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, 76 (8). pp. 1044-1054. ISSN 0040-1625,
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations. network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications. The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | NETWORK; COMPETITION; APPS; Disruptive innovation; Disruptive innovations; Disruptive technology; Disruptive technologies; Ex ante identification; Technological forecasting; Software markets; Software industry; Network effects; Web applications; Web 2.0; Google; Microsoft; Office applications |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre > Lehrstuhl für Innovations- und Technologiemanagement (Prof. Dr. Michael Dowling) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2020 05:28 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2020 05:28 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/28383 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
