Weber, Enzo and Zika, Gerd (2016) Labour market forecasting in Germany: is disaggregation useful? APPLIED ECONOMICS, 48 (23). pp. 2183-2198. ISSN 0003-6846, 1466-4283
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This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by sector in order to produce out-of-sample forecasts of aggregate employment. Forecast accuracy is compared to univariate models by using Clark/West tests. In an application to German data, it is evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, using fluctuation-window tests we find that disaggregation yields superior results especially in phases with strong and sustained employment changes.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | PREDICTIVE ACCURACY; EMPLOYMENT; MODEL; INFORMATION; Forecast; disaggregation; employment; Germany |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, insbesondere Makroökonomie und Arbeitsmarkt (Prof. Dr. Enzo Weber) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Mar 2019 08:05 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Mar 2019 08:05 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/3048 |
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