Klinger, Sabine and Weber, Enzo (2016) Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 144. pp. 115-118. ISSN 0165-1765, 1873-7374
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for analysing hysteresis effects, featuring trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. The decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment was not driven by hysteresis effects. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | GREAT RECESSION; FINANCIAL CRISES; BUSINESS-CYCLE; LABOR-MARKET; RECOVERY; REFORMS; Hysteresis; Structural unemployment; Business cycle; Unobserved components; Markov switching |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, insbesondere Makroökonomie und Arbeitsmarkt (Prof. Dr. Enzo Weber) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Apr 2019 11:38 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Apr 2019 11:38 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/3685 |
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