Barraquand, Frederic and Picoche, Coralie and Detto, Matteo and Hartig, Florian (2021) Inferring species interactions using Granger causality and convergent cross mapping. THEORETICAL ECOLOGY, 14. pp. 87-105. ISSN 1874-1738, 1874-1746
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
Identifying directed interactions between species from time series of their population densities has many uses in ecology. This key statistical task is equivalent to causal time series inference, which connects to the Granger causality (GC) concept: x causes y if x improves the prediction of y in a dynamic model. However, the entangled nature of nonlinear ecological systems has led to question the appropriateness of Granger causality, especially in its classical linear multivariate autoregressive (MAR) model form. Convergent cross mapping (CCM), a nonparametric method developed for deterministic dynamical systems, has been suggested as an alternative. Here, we show that linear GC and CCM are able to uncover interactions with surprisingly similar performance, for predator-prey cycles, 2-species deterministic (chaotic), or stochastic competition, as well as 10- and 20-species interaction networks. We found no correspondence between the degree of nonlinearity of the dynamics and which method performs best. Our results therefore imply that Granger causality, even in its linear MAR(p) formulation, is a valid method for inferring interactions in nonlinear ecological networks; using GC or CCM (or both) can instead be decided based on the aims and specifics of the analysis.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | COMMUNITY DYNAMICS; LINEAR-DEPENDENCE; TIME; INFERENCE; MODELS; DRIVERS; CHAOS; IMPLEMENTATION; STABILITY; FISHERIES; Time series; Interaction network; Causal inference; Feedback; Food web; Community dynamics |
| Subjects: | 500 Science > 570 Life sciences 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences |
| Divisions: | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) |
| Depositing User: | Petra Gürster |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Apr 2021 07:33 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Apr 2021 07:33 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/43371 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
