Sanfilippo, Giuseppe and Gilio, Angelo and Over, David E. and Pfeifer, Niki (2020) Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING, 121. pp. 150-173. ISSN 0888-613X, 1873-4731
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability. In our approach, however, we avoid triviality because the import-export principle is invalid. We then analyze an example of reasoning under partial knowledge where, given a conditional if A then Cas information, the probability of A should intuitively increase. We explain this intuition by making some implicit background information explicit. We consider several (generalized) iterated conditionals, which allow us to formalize different kinds of latent information. We verify that for these iterated conditionals the prevision is greater than or equal to the probability of A. We also investigate the lower and upper bounds of the Affirmation of the Consequent inference. We conclude our study with some remarks on the supposed "independence" of two conditionals, and we interpret this property as uncorrelation between two random quantities. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | PARADIGM PSYCHOLOGY; QUASI CONJUNCTION; COHERENCE; DISJUNCTION; INFERENCE; FINETTI; Coherence; Conditional random quantities; Conditional probabilities and previsions; Conjoined and iterated conditionals; Affirmation of the Consequent; Independence and uncorrelation |
| Subjects: | 100 Philosophy & psychology > 100 Philosophy |
| Divisions: | Philosophy, Art History, History, and Humanities > Institut für Philosophie Philosophy, Art History, History, and Humanities > Institut für Philosophie > Lehrstuhl für Theoretische Philosophie (Prof. Dr. phil Hans Rott) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Mar 2021 08:35 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Mar 2021 08:35 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/44507 |
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