Klinger, Sabine and Weber, Enzo (2020) GDP-employment decoupling in Germany. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS, 52. pp. 82-98. ISSN 0954-349X,
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This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment-GDP linkage as well as an additional employment component beyond the one linked to GDP. Controlling for the latter yields a more precise classification of what is a jobless recovery or a labour hoarding recession. We find that the co-movement of employment and GDP has loosened permanently since the Great Recession while the co-movement with other variables than GDP has become tighter. The decoupling goes hand in hand with the change of the sectoral composition of the economy, especially the rise of the service sector. Beyond that, high labour market tightness and at the same time high labour supply carried recent employment growth. The industry mix, wages and working time had a smaller influence. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | GREAT RECESSION; BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; TECHNICAL CHANGE; PLUCKING MODEL; OKUNS LAW; US OUTPUT; UNEMPLOYMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; HYSTERESIS; PERMANENT; GDP; Employment; Decoupling; Unobserved components; Time-varying coefficient |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, insbesondere Makroökonomie und Arbeitsmarkt (Prof. Dr. Enzo Weber) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Mar 2021 10:18 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Mar 2021 10:18 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/44987 |
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