Thrippleton, Timothy and Huelsmann, Lisa and Cailleret, Maxime and Bugmann, Harald (2020) Projecting Forest Dynamics Across Europe: Potentials and Pitfalls of Empirical Mortality Algorithms. ECOSYSTEMS, 23 (1). pp. 188-203. ISSN 1432-9840, 1435-0629
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Mortality is a key process of forest ecosystem dynamics and functioning strongly altering biomass stocks and carbon residence times. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) used to predict forest dynamics are typically based on simple, largely data-free ('theoretical') mortality algorithms (MAs). To improve DVM projections, the use of empirically based MAs has been suggested, but little is known about their impact on DVM behavior. A systematic comparison of eight MAs (seven inventory-based, one 'theoretical') for the pan-European tree species Pinus sylvestris L. was carried out within the DVM ForClim for present and future climate scenarios at three contrasting sites across Europe. Model accuracy was furthermore evaluated with empirical data from young- and old-growth forests. We found strongly diverging mortality patterns among the MAs for present climate. Based on their behavior, we identified two distinct empirical MA groups that were related to their structure (i.e., variables considered), but not to their geographic origin (i.e., the environmental conditions they were calibrated to). Under climate change, MAs based on a competition index produced ecologically inconsistent results, while MAs based on growth showed more plausible and less extreme behaviors. Furthermore, MAs based on growth reached a higher accuracy for projecting young- and old-growth forest dynamics. Our results demonstrate that using empirical MAs in DVMs has a high potential to better predict forest dynamics, but also a risk of yielding implausible results if their structure is inadequate. For DVM applications across large spatiotemporal scales, we thus suggest using MAs based on growth, particularly under future no-analogue climates.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | PINUS-SYLVESTRIS L.; INDIVIDUAL TREE MORTALITY; GLOBAL VEGETATION MODELS; SCOTS PINE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; INVENTORY DATA; GAP MODELS; LONG-TERM; GROWTH; DROUGHT; dynamic vegetation model; tree mortality; mortality models; forest dynamics; climate change; environmental gradient; Pinus sylvestris |
| Subjects: | 500 Science > 570 Life sciences 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences |
| Divisions: | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Apr 2021 06:29 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Apr 2021 06:29 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/45510 |
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