Hutter, Christian and Weber, Enzo (2021) Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change. ECONOMIC MODELLING, 102: 105584. ISSN 0264-9993, 1873-6122
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This paper examines the role of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change for productivity and employment. Thereby, we explore the puzzling macro development in Germany, witnessing job miracle and productivity debacle in parallel. In the literature, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) is known as an important driving factor for labour markets. We measure SBTC using comprehensive micro data and construct a structural macroeconometric framework identified by long-run restrictions. The results show that weaker SBTC explains 69 percent of the productivity slowdown since the early 2000s. Skill-biased technology shocks have a negative and skill-neutral technology shocks a positive hours effect. Twenty-five percent of the hours upswing since 2005 can be explained by reduced pressure from SBTC. Moreover, we analyse routine-biased technical change (RBTC) and find productivity and hours effects comparable to SBTC. However, only the latter can explain the job miracle - productivity debacle puzzle, since RBTC does not flatten substantially in the 2000s.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; UNEMPLOYMENT; INEQUALITY; DEMAND; GROWTH; SHOCKS; WAGES; POLARIZATION; EMPLOYMENT; REFORMS; Productivity; Technology shocks; Skill bias; Hours worked; SVAR |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics |
| Divisions: | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie > Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, insbesondere Makroökonomie und Arbeitsmarkt (Prof. Dr. Enzo Weber) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Aug 2022 10:48 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Aug 2022 10:48 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/46776 |
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