Schultz, Emily L. and Huelsmann, Lisa and Pillet, Michiel D. and Hartig, Florian and Breshears, David D. and Record, Sydne and Shaw, John D. and DeRose, R. Justin and Zuidema, Pieter A. and Evans, Margaret E. K. (2022) Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions. ECOLOGY LETTERS, 25 (1). pp. 38-51. ISSN 1461-023X, 1461-0248
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODELS; CROSS-SCALE INTERACTIONS; TREE DIE-OFF; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS; HUTCHINSONIAN NICHE; DEMOGRAPHIC NICHES; RANGE SHIFTS; FOREST; POPULATION; ECOLOGY; climate; competition; complex systems; demography; disturbances; forest inventory; integral projection model; range limits; scale; species distributions |
| Subjects: | 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences |
| Divisions: | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Sep 2022 05:32 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2022 05:32 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/47691 |
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