Thrippleton, Timothy and Huelsmann, Lisa and Cailleret, Maxime and Bugmann, Harald (2021) An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 11 (1): 19845. ISSN 2045-2322
Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)Abstract
Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | LIFE-HISTORY STRATEGIES; PINUS-SYLVESTRIS L.; SCOTS PINE; SHADE TOLERANCE; FOREST DYNAMICS; INVENTORY DATA; GROWTH; DROUGHT; CLIMATE; PREDICT |
| Subjects: | 500 Science > 580 Botanical sciences |
| Divisions: | Biology, Preclinical Medicine > Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften > Group Theoretical Ecology (Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig) |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Sep 2022 06:02 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2022 06:02 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/47740 |
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