The importance of considering competing risks in recurrence analysis of intracranial meningioma

Mirian, Christian and Jensen, Lasse Rehne and Juratli, Tareq A. and Maier, Andrea Daniela and Torp, Sverre H. and Shih, Helen A. and Morshed, Ramin A. and Young, Jacob S. and Magill, Stephen T. and Bertero, Luca and Stummer, Walter and Spille, Dorothee Caecilia and Brokinkel, Benjamin and Oya, Soichi and Miyawaki, Satoru and Saito, Nobuhito and Proescholdt, Martin and Kuroi, Yasuhiro and Gousias, Konstantinos and Simon, Matthias and Moliterno, Jennifer and Prat-Acin, Ricardo and Goutagny, Stephane and Prabhu, Vikram C. and Tsiang, John T. and Wach, Johannes and Gueresir, Erdem and Yamamoto, Junkoh and Kim, Young Zoon and Lee, Joo Ho and Koshy, Matthew and Perumal, Karthikeyan and Baskaya, Mustafa K. and Cannon, Donald M. and Shrieve, Dennis C. and Suh, Chang-Ok and Chang, Jong Hee and Kamenova, Maria and Straumann, Sven and Soleman, Jehuda and Eyuepoglu, Ilker Y. and Catalan, Tony and Lui, Austin and Theodosopoulos, Philip V. and Mcdermott, Michael W. and Wang, Fang and Guo, Fuyou and Goes, Pedro and de Paiva Neto, Manoel Antonio and Jamshidi, Aria and Komotar, Ricardo and Ivan, Michael and Luther, Evan and Souhami, Luis and Guiot, Marie-Christine and Csonka, Tamas and Endo, Toshiki and Barrett, Olivia Claire and Jensen, Randy and Gupta, Tejpal and Patel, Akash J. and Klisch, Tiemo J. and Kim, Jun Won and Maiuri, Francesco and Barresi, Valeria and Tabernero, Maria Dolores and Skyrman, Simon and Broechner, Anders and Bach, Mathias Jacobsen and Law, Ian and Scheie, David and Kristensen, Bjarne Winther and Munch, Tina Norgaard and Meling, Torstein and Fugleholm, Kare and Blanche, Paul and Mathiesen, Tiit (2024) The importance of considering competing risks in recurrence analysis of intracranial meningioma. JOURNAL OF NEURO-ONCOLOGY, 166 (3). pp. 503-511. ISSN 0167-594X, 1573-7373

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Abstract

Background The risk of recurrence is overestimated by the Kaplan-Meier method when competing events, such as death without recurrence, are present. Such overestimation can be avoided by using the Aalen-Johansen method, which is a direct extension of Kaplan-Meier that accounts for competing events. Meningiomas commonly occur in older individuals and have slow-growing properties, thereby warranting competing risk analysis. The extent to which competing events are considered in meningioma literature is unknown, and the consequences of using incorrect methodologies in meningioma recurrence risk analysis have not been investigated. Methods We surveyed articles indexed on PubMed since 2020 to assess the usage of competing risk analysis in recent meningioma literature. To compare recurrence risk estimates obtained through Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen methods, we applied our international database comprising similar to 8,000 patients with a primary meningioma collected from 42 institutions. Results Of 513 articles, 169 were eligible for full-text screening. There were 6,537 eligible cases from our PERNS database. The discrepancy between the results obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen was negligible among low-grade lesions and younger individuals. The discrepancy increased substantially in the patient groups associated with higher rates of competing events (older patients with high-grade lesions). Conclusion The importance of considering competing events in recurrence risk analysis is poorly recognized as only 6% of the studies we surveyed employed Aalen-Johansen analyses. Consequently, most of the previous literature has overestimated the risk of recurrence. The overestimation was negligible for studies involving low-grade lesions in younger individuals; however, overestimation might have been substantial for studies on high-grade lesions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ORGANIZATION GRADE I; SURVIVAL; CLASSIFICATION; RELEVANCE; SYSTEM; Meningioma; Neuro-oncology; Competing risk; Recurrence
Subjects: 600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
Divisions: Medicine > Lehrstuhl für Neurochirurgie
Depositing User: Dr. Gernot Deinzer
Date Deposited: 23 Jul 2025 09:47
Last Modified: 23 Jul 2025 09:47
URI: https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/65751

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