Towards Defining Follow-up Strategies for Patients with Primary Intermediate-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer

Contieri, Roberto and Martini, Alberto and Beijert, Irene J. and Mertens, Laura S. and Hentschel, Anouk E. and Bründl, Johannes and Comperat, Eva M. and Plass, Karin and Rodriguez, Oscar and Henriquez, Jose D. Subiela and Hernandez, Virginia and de la Pena, Enrique and Alemany, Isabel and Turturica, Diana and Pisano, Francesca and Soria, Francesco and Capoun, Otakar and Bauerova, Lenka and Pesl, Michael and Bruins, H. Maxim and Runneboom, Willemien and Herdegen, Sonja and Breyer, Johannes and Brisuda, Antonin and Calatrava, Ana and Rubio-Briones, Jose and Seles, Maximilian and Mannweiler, Sebastian and Bosschieter, Judith and Kusuma, Venkata R. M. and Ashabere, David and Huebner, Nicolai and Seisen, Thomas and Claps, Francesco and Masson-Lecomte, Alexandra and Liedberg, Fredrik and Cohen, Daniel and Lunelli, Luca and Cussenot, Olivier and El Sheikh, Soha and Volanis, Dimitrios and Cote, Jean-Francois and Roupret, Morgan and Haitel, Andrea and Shariat, Shahrokh F. and Mostafid, A. Hugh and Nieuwenhuijzen, Jakko A. and Zigeuner, Richard and Dominguez-Escrig, Jose L. and Hacek, Jaromir and Zlotta, Alexandre R. and Burger, Maximilian and Evert, Matthias and van de Kaa, Christina A. and van der Heijden, Antoine G. and Kiemeney, Lambertus A. L. M. and Soukup, Viktor and Molinaro, Luca and Hurle, Rodolfo and Paciotti, Marco and Moschini, Marco and Pradere, Benjamin and Perdona, Sisto and Gontero, Paolo and Llorente, Carlos and Algaba, Ferran and Palou, Joan and N'Dow, James and Ribal, Maria J. and van der Kwast, Theo H. and Babjuk, Marko and Sylvester, Richard J. and van Rhijn, Bas W. G. (2025) Towards Defining Follow-up Strategies for Patients with Primary Intermediate-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer. EUROPEAN UROLOGY ONCOLOGY, 8 (4). pp. 977-985. ISSN , 2588-9311

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Abstract

Background and objective The current European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines on non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) categorize patients into four risk groups. In 2024, a specific follow-up schedule was introduced for intermediate-risk (IR) disease. However, recommendations are based on expert opinion and restricted to patients with IR-NMIBC who have primary low-grade or high-grade/grade 2 disease. Our aim was to identify a subgroup of patients with IR-NMIBC who may require more stringent follow-up. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of 2086 patients with IR-NMIBC classified according to the World Health Organization 1973 grading scheme. Multivariable Cox-regression models were fitted to identify predictors of recurrence, which were then used to dichotomize groups with low risk of recurrence (IR-Low) versus high risk of recurrence (IR-High). Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Smoothed hazard estimates of first recurrence were plotted by risk group. Key findings and limitations Multifocality and tumor size >= 3 cm were significantly associated with higher risk of first recurrence and were used to define the IR-High and IR-Low (unifocal, size <3 cm; n = 1087) groups. The 3-yr RFS rate was significantly worse for the IR-High group (51%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 48-54%) than for IR-Low (68%, 95% CI 65-71%). The risk of progression was low (5-yr PFS rate 96%) with no significant difference between the IR-High and IR-Low groups. Conclusions and clinical implications During IR-NMIBC follow-up for recurrence, tumor size and focality should be considered rather than grade. If the primary objective is to ensure prompt detection of recurrence, follow-up schedules should be tailored according to the risk of recurrence, with more stringent protocols for patients with IR-NMIBC at higher risk of recurrence. (c) 2025 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: PERFORMANCE; TUMORS; Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer; Follow-up; Risk; Stratification; Intermediate risk
Subjects: 600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
Divisions: Medicine > Lehrstuhl für Urologie
Depositing User: Dr. Gernot Deinzer
Date Deposited: 25 Mar 2026 08:00
Last Modified: 25 Mar 2026 08:00
URI: https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/68024

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