Sterner, Philipp and Friemelt, Benedikt and Goretzko, David and Kraus, Elisabeth and Buehner, Markus and Pargent, Florian (2024) The Confidence/Significance Level Implies a Certain Cost Ratio Between Type I Error and Type II Error. An Appeal for a Stronger Focus on Decision Theory in Psychological Assessment. DIAGNOSTICA, 70 (3). pp. 126-138. ISSN 0012-1924, 2190-622X
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Psychological assessment requires decisions, such as whether a person is "below the norm" in some psychological domain. German textbooks recommend considering the measurement uncertainty of psychological tests (critical differences, hypothesis tests, confidence intervals). However, these recommendations resemble heuristics without a rationale on choosing the appropriate significance or confidence level. When viewed from the perspective of decision theory, one can show the implicit assumptions of current decision heuristics. For example, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals with a significance level of alpha = 0.05 imply that type I errors are 39 times as costly as type II errors. In this contribution, we introduce decision theory and use this framework to discuss the implications of current assessment practices. We present a survey of neuropsychologists who reported their internal cost ratio for an assessment scenario. The majority chose less extreme ratios than common heuristics would imply. We argue that psychological assessment would benefit from explicitly considering the implications of decision theory.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ; statistical decision theory; assessment; confidence intervals; bayesian credible intervals; cost ratio of type I/II error |
| Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 370 Education |
| Divisions: | Human Sciences > Institut für Bildungswissenschaft |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Gernot Deinzer |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Jan 2026 14:54 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Jan 2026 14:54 |
| URI: | https://pred.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/64605 |
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